A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
